Early Black Friday Promotion is Reshaping Seasonal Spending

As the unofficial, post-Thanksgiving start of the holiday shopping season, Black Friday has been a tradition for consumers and retailers since the 1960s. However, over the decades, Black Friday has evolved from a single marathon shopping outing to encompass weeks of retail promotions and the promise of savings.  

The trend of launching Black Friday deals earlier has intensified greatly in the last five years, reshaping how consumers approach holiday spending. Retailers are leveraging extended promotions to capture attention in an increasingly competitive market. Meanwhile, shoppers are adjusting budgets and expectations to take advantage of deals across multiple weeks. This shift is changing the cadence of seasonal sales, influencing how consumers prioritize purchases, and impacting how retailers plan inventory, marketing, and resource management strategies.

The Holiday Season Starts Even Earlier (Again)

Increasingly known by the marketing term “Black November,” the trend of brands enticing consumers with holiday savings is now a month-long effort, with some brands hanging their discount signage before Halloween has even ended. 

This shift is more than a competitive marketing strategy. Economic conditions are continuing to affect how retailers are positioning themselves for the holiday season. Inflation may be cooling, but prices remain elevated due to pressures like tariffs, energy expenses, and retailer reluctance to revert to previously lower prices. In addition, consumers are experiencing shopping fatigue and discount burnout, which, compounded by modest wage gains, are influencing discretionary spending. 

Retailers are optimistic that by stretching promotions over a longer period, they can attract shoppers who are carefully timing purchases. This also gives brands the opportunity to manage inventory and avoid the economic spikes of a single shopping day. For consumers, the result is a holiday season that begins earlier and requires more strategic planning.

The Shape of Seasonal Spending in 2025

Retailers are anticipating moderate growth in overall holiday spending this year, forecasted at a 4.3% increase over 2024, reflecting cautious optimism among consumers. Increases in cost of living and essentials like groceries amid a slowing job market are shifting consumer mindsets. Forty-two percent of shoppers in 2025 planned to start making purchases before November, motivated by budgeting concerns and the attraction of retailer promotions, among other factors. 

Consumer confidence is mixed, with many citing issues with pricing and inflation. This is leading many shoppers to prioritize essentials and high-value items. Categories projected to see the fastest growth include gift cards, electronics (which have recently rebounded in demand), and experience-based gifts such as travel, entertainment, or dining options. Trending collectables are also expected to help the toy market grow after remaining flat for 2023-2024.

Retailers should also take note of the differences in spending plans across generations. Gen Z is expected to cut holiday budgets by 23%, reflecting job market challenges and rising consumer goods costs. In contrast, spending across Baby Boomers is increasing 5% over 2024. This indicates that while early shopping may appeal to some, overarching spending tendencies may prevail over even the cleverest marketing campaigns this holiday season. 

Black Friday’s Fading Centrality

Black Friday is no longer a singular event. Retailers are offering “Black Friday-level” deals weeks in advance to spread out demand, manage inventory, and ease supply chain pressures. Shoppers are embracing early promotions to better budget, compare deals, and avoid shipping delays. 

Cyber Monday perception and marketing are also affected by these shifts. While 71% of people plan to shop online for Black Friday, 12% believe Cyber Monday deals are a marketing hoax and remain skeptical. In response, retailers have extended what was once a one-day event into a period of online promotions, with deals rolling out over multiple weeks. 

This change has financial implications for both sides. Retailers may see steadier revenue flows rather than one-day spikes, while shoppers gain more control over timing and spending. Socially, the traditional frenzy of Black Friday crowds and lines is giving way to a calmer, more digitally focused shopping experience. As a result, the traditional holiday shopping calendar is becoming less about a single day and more about a continuous, digitally driven buying season.

How Consumers are Paying for the Holidays

Holiday spending in 2025 is being shaped by both consumer behavior and broader economic signals. With credit card debt levels elevated and interest rates remaining higher than the pre-COVID economy, many shoppers are approaching purchases with caution. 

This has led some consumers to lean on financing options to manage cash flow while others are delaying nonessential purchases. The use of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to grow 15% in 2025, largely attributed to younger shoppers seeking flexible payment terms. 

Overall, it may be what consumers are not spending that makes retailers take notice. Seventy-eight percent of shoppers are looking for less expensive alternatives to desired goods, while 77% expect higher prices this season. With value, trust, and meaning underscoring consumer decision making, shoppers like those in Gen Z (which may reduce spending by 34% YOY) may just hold onto their money this season. 

With holiday shopping unfolding over weeks rather than days, financial institutions that anticipate the cadence of spending and the drivers of those financial choices may be well positioned to support consumers. The future of holiday commerce is about data-informed engagement that is sustainable and agile.